Wednesday, December 21, 2011

appropriate policies to develop

129667889752490392_384Analysts pointed out that, although there is a share around 2,400 points barrier shrink volume adjustment, but with the various policies play a role in economy to a soft landing, austerity policy shift, further reforming and improving the capital markets system, the market medium to go with a solid foundation. Broader market around 2,400-point mark this week continued necking adjustment, increasingly strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Although a fewAfter the competition, 2,400-point fall on Wednesday declared, but Europe and the continuous plunge of the stock market, the a-share markets are still showing a strong "immune" character.   Main capital stocks (eleven-twenty fifths) unit fled to cut meat must regret having sudden boom is not likely in a move investors Gospel: hold stocks saved! Notable is because Fitch downgraded PortugalPortuguese Dental letter evaluation to junk status, whether Germany and France in the Euro bond issue still at odds on, European debt problems long on enthusiasm of erratic is still suppressing the global market. At the same time, domestic in October, after a big increase in new credit, 11-12 month of more than $ 2 trillion fiscal expansion space will verify the authenticity of the loosening of monetary policy is expected. Thus, despite the end of policy keySet to impose on the relative strength of the a-share was supported, but the uncertainty of the situation in the European debt crisis, domestic policy efforts and policy tuning is in line with expectations, have become the sidelines waiting for the main reason for the current market. Market at the sidelines waiting for stage the market repeated entanglement in the vicinity of 2,400 points, reflecting investment expected parties on fundamentals, the policy is still uncertainCharacteristics of the market.  Huzhi hits the 3,067 points drop channel rail disruption, has now dropped for three consecutive weeks, from the previous low of 2,307 point is only a step away, and through extreme downturn sold, due to both sides of the hands of the chips, no one dares to act rashly, leading stock index temporarily in Agglutination, wait wait thus entered a new phase in the market. ShijiInvestment view, three main drivers of China's stock market is liquidity, valuation and market sentiment. Seen from the liquidity, monetary policy is on small and medium-sized private enterprises take a relaxed attitude, the liquidity of capital markets are improving. From a valuation point, dynamic PE 12 times for CSI 300 index, szse SME index dynamic PE is 26 times, the gem index dynamic PE to 46Times, on the whole, although small caps are still very expensive, but valuations are attractive.  From the perspective of market sentiment, also towards positive change. With the European debt crisis and gradually fermentation, as well as the October first negative growth in the Foreign Exchange accounts for nearly 4 years, stock indexes have been gradually watered down rebound since the policy of positive, market pattern is quietly shifting. Hunan finance securities believes that easing-historyGame with the economic slowdown will be the key factors affecting market movements. However, after the plunge in stock after consecutive, necking pattern meant to kill the fallen kinetic energy is limited, rally at an incubation stage; but increasingly strong global risk aversion, constantly deteriorating economic expectations and lack of market confidence seriously restricting the height of a-shares rebounded, stock pattern or a weak shock will continue.Analysts generally said that the market state of flux, short term market remains weak, lack of popularity, as well as economic recession, increased uncertainty, more shadows, market turbulence patterns don't change.  End of time, investors should keep cool, wait for policy window opens. Clear market continued to wait wait wait for policy fundamentals, General analystsView, is the central economic work Conference held that monetary policy can be moderately loose, and if the European debt crisis further upgrading of three major factors, such as clear, will have a key influence on future trend. First, the central economic work Conference held. Over the operation of the central economic work Conference on the securities market has played a pivotal role. So for "12Five "for the second year, the effects of more far-reaching significance. Galaxy securities said, from the analysis of the markets on the prospect of economic work Conference, the original "control of inflation, growth, structure," based on guarding against financial risks will also be included in the focus. This trade-off at four, appropriate policies to develop, is the current market eagerKnown content. Particularly in terms of guarding against financial risks, after house prices fall as scheduled, and how to guard against financial risks arising from market is more worrying issue.  Tone in guarding against financial risks growing at the same time, tasks of economic growth cannot be ignored. Second, monetary policy can be moderately easy. Currency issued by the Central Bank of the third quarter of 2011 China politicalStrategy implementation report has an explicit reference to monetary policy in a timely manner appropriate for preconditioning fine-tuning, consolidate the good momentum of steady and rapid economic development. More recently, in research, the people's Bank of China Deputy Governor Hu xiaolian reiterated that timely monetary policy pre-adjustable tune of moderate views. In addition, sources say, Zhejiang Provincial rural credit system allowed to redirect its institutions renminbi deposit reserve rate 0.5Percentage points to 16%. Although this cannot be seen as a significant change in monetary policy, but in October added Exchange-24.9 billion yuan, was the single month of negative growth for the first time since December 2007, probability of lower deposit rates increased during the year.  From here, from the vision of the market on monetary policy to fine-tune was not there. Thirdly swtor power leveling, the European debt crisis is furtherUpgrade. This week, Germany auction-EUR 6 billion debt, but private investors to purchase only the 3.644 billion euros, equivalent to the subscription rate to about 60%, the remaining 2.356 billion euros of debt, by the Germany Central Bank taking responsibility. After the auction, Germany 10-year government bond rates climbed to 2.09%, the highest position for three weeks for the first time more than United StatesTreasury rates. Germany failed auction, are understood as European debt risks are quite close to the European "heart". Even if the proportion of debt to GDP and the deficit situation in the country are better than Greece, and Italy and other countries, but confidence apparently was damaged. After the end of the auction, euro-dollar crazy down nearly 250 points, its lowest level since October 10. European stocksThe city also fell, United States more than three major stock indexes decrease in 2%. At the same time, the international rating agency Fitch announced on 24th, because Portugal financial imbalances, the Department high debt and deteriorating economic Outlook, Fitch has been Portugal's credit rating from BBB down to BB.  Fitch BB rating that is identified as junk by the market. Analysts sayAnd German Government bond stream, Portugal assessment downgraded to junk status means that upgrading the European debt crisis.  If the European debt crisis escalated, stocks tumbled on the a-share market movements in Europe and have a tremendous external shocks. Markets provide a good foundation is still as tight regulation of fermentation star wars the old republic, while inflation fell back quickly, on the other hand depressed economic growth risks are on the riseMacroeconomic regulation and control focus gradually moved towards sustaining economic growth, from relaxing the financing, Bank lending interest rates low, 3-year, 1-year Central ticket rates downward, autonomous local debt issuing pilot, VAT, tax and business tax, Zhejiang 6 resume 16% deposit rate of rural credit cooperatives, these series of events show that the monetary policy, fiscal policy has gradually turned to positiveThis reverses policy laid the Foundation for the market. Caude investments believes that with inflation accelerating downward is expected to enhance, policy is relatively loose, economy to a soft landing is expected to enhance, gradually reversed the monetary environment, the market has become the basis for the better. Short-term due to negative factors together, long suppressed by the certain confidence in the market, but after the market fully digesting bad influence, markets reboundPossibilities is growing, and once obvious easing signals, the market will regain their upward trend. Market along 5th averages fell below, 3rd consecutive rebound obstacle 5th averages, shows very weak market long on quantity, recent market turnover remains weak, also reflects the funding collapse in enthusiasm. Market day k-line continuous adjustment 8 trading days consecutive to the volume sold,Kinetic energy started trend of failure, on the other hand, from the space and time, the market early in the 2,400-point inverse neck line 2,440 requirements. Choi Tong securities believes that ongoing adjustment of this week, first breaking a cent on October 12, 2011 lows with two per cent on October 24, 2011 low neck line at the end of 2,452,Second breaking a 2,536 points, 2,534 m head of high technology measurements or 2,408, the third breaking of 2,307On the Ribbon of the entire technology, 2,307 lows since 1664 after the low point of the trend is similar, namely merchant breakthrough after the 60-day moving average, back to the 60-day moving average, and then again after the attack on fast-breaking 60-day moving average, and continued downward 0.618 of breakdown rally back, and then continue to the volume of around six sessions, 1664 is launchedA wave of market, this continued to the volume may also repeat history. Consumption will be at the new highlights in this week's market necking shocks adjusted index trying to get rid of the negative effects of external markets, on 5th averages constitutes pressure, arranged in the short and medium term averages short, but continuing this week to show that both sides have no desire to continue fighting, we are waiting for further policy factors of uncertainty。  Combining policy warming trend remains unchanged, improve liquidity expected unchanged, the rally would not be ended and now had to take the initiative to give when buying.  From the calendar year, around wine, retail, pharmaceuticals, farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing in consumption concept will be the end of a major attraction in the market. Wealth through stock view, from a policy point of view, focus on benefiting fromCredit and fiscal encouragement of "protecting employment and promoting restructuring and stabilizing the economy," related industry chain, including agriculture, water conservancy, transportation, energy conservation and environmental protection, power equipment, new industries, and so on. Its 2012 policy to push development is the trend of service industry, promising services sector as the core structural opportunities, including but not limited to cultural media, medical and education services, environmental protection, Logistics, trade flows, and so on. Huaxun investments believes that at present the market is continuously adjusted, with the main reason for this is: trading volume low, scattered, poor sustainability hot spots in the market; message may not be appropriate, and so lead to oversold market triggered technical rebound continued to be delayed. Instead, through continuous adjustment raises a number of technical indicators deviated from, by kinetic energy markets itself to correct marketOversold. In view of the short-term technical oversold market seriously, short or bred oversold rebound, it is recommended that the investors should not be overly bearish, an active interest in some oversold opportunities, there are recent positive inflow of funds for wine, pharmaceutical, food and other consumer concept.

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