liquidity and profitability and build relationships at the end of the three

Economic pessimism looks forward to little Bull Despite the slow pace of economic growth, but institutional investors are not pessimistic about the market next year. Shenyin wanguo Chief macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong said that, in the case of Twelve-Five planning in full swing next year economic pessimism, changes in the policies window of time before and after two sessions; guotai Junan securities strategist Zhong Hua believes that small bull market patterns will be established after the first quarter of next year, annual indices runInterval in 2300-3000, the Changjiang securities chief analyst Su Xuejing said that real estate industry, as long as the commercial real estate policy adjustments does not occur, overall prosperity of the commercial real estate is that you can look forward to. Li Huiyong: changes in the policy window before and after two sessions in the case of Twelve-Five planning in full swing, we are not pessimistic on next year. Growth decline, but the overall risk is notGreat decline of inflation, not deflation. We believe that the external economic degradation, economic decline, inflation pressures of inertia General mitigation, local government, the four factors that will make the implementation Twelve-Five planning a 2012 China's economy a top priority. Return "Twelve-Five", is both the structure and growth. Looking forward to the next year, growth will depend on market forces and policyGames of strength. Exports down and real estate on behalf of market forces, policy on behalf of power up, expect annual economic growth 8.6%, rendering low after before, before and after the low point in the 2 quarter of growth. Judging from market forces alone, inertia of the economy will continue to maintain the trend of falling. Is Europe, the emerging economies, exports drop will provide an impetus to China's exports and the next step, expected outAnnual export growth to drop to around 13.5%; second, real estate sales sluggish early more influenced by restriction of influence and credit tight, accompanied by economic adjustment and falling real estate prices, confidence and housing prices reflect impact on real estate. Superposition of two, making the economy accelerate the risk of falling. Because there are no new economic growth points, by the market itself is difficult to reverse,Inflection point mainly to see policy. From the policy point of view, along with the evolution of the economic cycle, macroeconomic policy emphasis will shift from controlled inflation steady growth. Compared with Europe and the United States, the Government projects steady growth in China is an important tool. Comparison of investment from the Government and non-government investment, when non-government investment, and administration is often appropriate to slow rhythm starts to avoid overheating. 2011The Government's "back", for the 2012 policy "into" reserved space, Governments have effectively through the implementation of the Twelve-Five project to achieve the objective of growth. Judging from inflation, imported, weakening cyclical inflationary pressures contribute to inflation falling, but reform of factor prices may be making it difficult for inflation to decline significantly, expects full year CPI rose 3.2%, rendering low descending pattern�� Future policy will be shifted from controlling inflation steady growth, fiscal policy will play a greater role in steady growth. Monetary policy interest rate policy space is limited, more funds to cut through the reserve to ease the tension. Relative to Europe and America, and China's policy has more space, starting with fiscal policy diablo 3 power leveling, on the whole, China's government debt rate is not high, government bond there is still room, structureTax cuts can be implemented. Secondly in terms of monetary policy, interest rates and reserve requirements can be reduced, relative to the price levels in 3%, China's interest rate is not high, substantial room for downward adjustment of interest rates is unlikely; lowered growth reserves, a stable currency, will be the main instrument. We believe that the changes in the policies window of time before and after two sessions, a tolerance interval is due to the price back down to the Government,Second, the real estate prices basically brought under control, three are European debt crisis may once again break out, outflow of funds may face requires a lower reserve ratios. Zhong Hua: bullish on early cycle and livelihood transition in 2012 our market view is that: as a low point in the first quarter, but inflation, liquidity and profitability and build relationships at the end of the three, we are in the bottom area,Quarter low point is more of a recognition process, is expected to usher in calves, throughout the run interval in 2300-3000 points, industry benefited and livelihood transition part configuration is divided into early cycle industry, mainly property, chemical industry, new industries, and so on. CSI 300 valuation at around 11 times this year, the stock market fluctuation interval has been at the bottom of the lockStocks build three elements at the end of inflation, policy steering and performance. From a short-cycle, inflation peaked prerequisites, leading market bottom drop policy shift is necessary to bring liquidity and steering, synchronization market bottom; end of performance is lagging in the bottom of the market in General. First is inflation. In the context of policies derived growth, inflation rate as a monetary phenomenon moreSignificantly. We believe that in the process of falling M2, falling inflation there must be a clear. Quantitative liquidity next year than this year have improved, the probability is not high but sharply exceeded expectations. Pilot local governments issue bonds instead of indirect financing through direct financing, it will help improve the financing structure. The short term, the Chinese version of 401K can provide incremental fundingGold is limited, but the medium and long term is favorable conditions for sustained development of capital markets. Everyone is worried about the stock market to refinance. Now, with total financing for the entire history of the a-share stock market between cause and effect relationship is not strong. And the total amount of financing the second half of 2011 has already begun to decline, which means more fragile is the market itself. If raising the a-shareDoes a category, divided into the IPO issue, rights issue, it is interesting, in 2007 years, throughout the total financing, increased the percentage gradually beyond the IPO, this means that government influence in weakening of market supply and demand. In addition, is the size of restricted shares lifted shares next year. 2012 stress in 1 month, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12Months, compared with the 2011 more reduction in the number. Corporate profits, many people worried about whether there is a clear fell? We believe that one or two quarters were bottom of the net earnings growth next year. Because one or two quarters of next year is inflation to fall sharply and GDP that corresponds to the bottom of this 2008 year more similar. Su Xuejing: focus on business service delivery suiteProducing industry is our most controversial industry. 2011 prices fell, real estate equities platform box arrangement pattern. At this point, we still have the courage to believe that 2012 there will be different. We expect that access by 2012, in terms of government guidance, particularly in the supply structure of regulated markets, controlling rapidly rising house prices, maintaining the market order, andFour aspects, namely strengthening the standardized management will announce a new policy, the real estate market as a whole appears relatively stable positive development direction. Exchange rates in 2012 will be of real estate, a major focus of 2011 the overall commercial real estate in a stage of prosperity, 2012 commercial real estate will face the impact of exchange rate changes. In addition, in the process of return to the market, leveragedMajor changes will happen. Housing two directional characteristic is very obvious: the first feature is occurring on the concentration of industry. Now developers into two or three-tier cities, it will replace the market leader for two or three-tier cities, probably in two or three lines of real estate companies in the secondary market transformation can occur. Second feature appeared on the market segment. Enter 2012 years, improved demand among market segments are born a number of businesses, some enterprises will become the leading enterprise, ultimately for high prices and high valuations. In addition to the field of housing, we again stress the opportunities for commercial real estate. The end of last year, reminds us that fundamental changes in the commercial real estate this year. Now looking back, rental and commercial real estate prices 2011Is now a rapid rise. We believe 2012 commercial real estate trends will not end as long as the commercial property policies without major adjustments, overall prosperity of the commercial real estate is that you can look forward to. New developers to invest in real estate services sector and tourism. For configurations and company stocks as a whole next year, according to the restriction of the policy schedule, as well as on investment and new construction as a whole sentenceBreaks the first quarter of next year is an important time investment real estate stock window. But this time window, and in 2008 has some different, not rapid and crisp as they did in 2008, possibly returning to a normal real estate valuation. For commercial real estate, we preferred the three companies: shimao, and Lujiazui diablo 3 gold, World Trade Center.